Die unten gezeigte Anlyse von James Turk ist aus meiner Sicht einer der wichtigsten Beiträge zuraktuellen Situation bei Gold und Silber, die verfügbar sind.
Laut James Turk (www.goldmoney.com), den ich persönlich sehr schätze und der nicht zu den Marktschreiern gehört,steht der Goldmarkt vor einer Spaltung, bzw. dem Zusammenbruch!
Anschließend wird ein neuer Preis deutlich oberhalb aktuellerNotierungen gültig sein – so wie Ende der 60er Jahre, als das damaligeGoldkartell zusammenbrach.
Zürich und London werden einfach solange beliefert wie dievorhandenen und entbehrlichen Gold/Silbermengen abverkauft sind – das wares dann.
Sehr schnell wird die COMEX implodieren und „force majeur“ausrufen und die Bullion Banken werden mit den Achsel zucken und die geshorteteWare nicht liefern (können).
Man wird feststellen, dass über viele Jahre die Praxis derBullion Banken natürlich illegal war, da sie Edelmetall auf Termin verkauften,was nie vorhanden war – doch helfen wird dies keinem!
Was jetzt noch zu tun bliebt, ist der sofortige Kauf vonXetra-Gold und der schnelle Antrag auf Auslieferung der Barren, denn auf diesemWeg kommt man noch relativ einfach in den kommenden 14 Tagen an physisches Gold.
Siehe Xetra Gold
Der Goldpreis wird in den kommenden Wochen und Monaten durch dieDecke gehen, die physische Nachfrage führt zwangsweise zu dieser Explosion –wie vor 40 Jahren zuletzt gesehen.
Die Zeiten des (manipulierten) Papiergoldes nähern sich dem Ende,nur physische Ware und schon sehr schnell auch wieder Goldminen bilden einenSchutz.
ByJames Turk
GoldMoney.com
Friday, October 10, 2008
We buy gold and silver in the London and Zurich markets and we are daily replenishingthis inventory, which we resell to our customers. All bars we purchase meet thestandards of the London Bullion Market Association. There is no minimum ormaximum transaction for our customers.
By buying gold and silver in the London and Zurich markets we are giving retailinvestors the opportunity to buy alongside big institutional firms operating inthese markets and to gain the advantages of these markets -- deep liquidity andtransparent pricing, and the LBMA is the highest standard of quality andintegrity. All transactions in GoldMoney are for physical metal -- that is, no"paper" gold or "paper" silver. Regular audits of the metalconfirm that the weight of gold and silver in the vaults is exactly equal tothe quantity of gold and silver recorded in each customer's account, and theseaudits are available to our customers upon request.
So far the London and Zurich markets continue to operate without problems, butI sense some strains are developing. For example, in London we have had difficultyin locating "bonded" silver bars (those without the U.K.'s ValueAdded Tax). We have therefore had to change our London pricing to encourage ourcustomers to buy silver in Zurich instead, where our markup over spot remainsunchanged.
Importantly, the spot price in London and Zurich for both gold and silverremains consistent with the spot price of the Comex. There is no backwardationyet. I say "yet" purposefully. I am watching this relationshipcarefully because the big spike in gold lending rates in recent days suggeststhat backwardation could occur at any time.
Though I have always considered backwardation in gold and silver a theoreticalpossibility, I never thought it would happen in practice. Backwardation wouldmean that conditions are so stressed that buyers would be willing to pay morefor metal at the spot price than a future price. It would mean, among otherthings, that the future markets have been discredited and buyers want the"real thing" and not someone's promise -- as the old saying goes,"a bird in hand is worth two in the bush," which is becoming anincreasingly important strategy to avoid counterparty risk.
I suppose that one could reasonably argue that a backwardation of sorts isalready occurring. The shortage of fabricated product has led toextraordinarily high premiums for coins and small bars. These high premiums forcoins and small bars indicate that the spot price for the precious metalsshould be much higher.
The gold cartel can allow the shortage of fabricated product to happen and justsimply make up excuses for it. Right now there is no doubt in my mind that theyare instructing the U.S. Mint and other mints to blame the shortages on highdemand. But the gold cartel cannot make excuses if shortages appear in the LBMAmarket. If they did, the game would be over, just like what happened in March1968.
To keep the price low back then, central banks were supplying metal in theLondon and Zurich markets. When they stopped supplying metal that month, theresult was the two-tiered gold price. The so-called "official price"(which is another way of saying the "gold cartel price") remained at$35, while the free-market price traded above that level because everyonerecognized that $35 were worth less than 1 ounce of gold. The same thing ishappening today, in that $900 are not worth 1 ounce of gold. So we are probablyclose to the point (probably just weeks away) when the gold cartel stopssupplying metal in London and Zurich at these low prices. The question is: Whatcomes next?
It is of course impossible to predict what the gold cartel has up its sleeve,but I sense that a big announcement by governments is coming soon. It isreasonable to expect an outcome like March 1968, in which case the free-marketprice of gold will soar.
Here's the important part for GoldMoney customers. They are purchasing metalbased on the spot price in London and Zurich for both gold and silver. Thusthey are able to buy metal without the huge premiums now being charged on eBay,for example, for fabricated product like coins and small bars. Using my FearIndex and other valuation models, I would argue that buying gold in London andZurich today is like buying it back in February 1968 when it was still $35 andbefore the collapse of the London gold pool the following month.
There has been no change in my strategy, which I have been stating for years. Icontinue to recommend the ongoing accumulation of the precious metals. Theyremain undervalued.
I believe that there was an important change in sentiment this past week. Upuntil now gold was being liquidated along with most everything else. Gold isnow rising (despite the gold cartel's best efforts to keep it capped) whilemost everything else is still being liquidated as the deleveraging digs deeper.That gold is now rising indicates that people who have managed to get liquid inrecent weeks are now focusing on safety for their money. Consequently they arebuying gold, and I expect this trend to continue.
Lastly, gold again probed overhead resistance today at the $920 level, but thegold cartel is obviously "circling the wagons" at that level. Plus,as I write, we are getting the usual late-Friday "bombing" in thepaper markets. It reminds me of what happened at $325, $340, $430, $500, and$700. Of course all those levels were taken out eventually, and I expect $920to be exceeded too. It may not happen today or even this month. But I'msticking with my year-end forecast of $1,100-$1,200 for gold, which looksreasonable to me given the rush out of financial assets and the search for asafe haven. Gold is of course the safest haven of them all. Silver is morevolatile, but it's safe too for the same reason -- physical gold and silver donot have counterparty risk.
